TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY  FORECASTING

ABSTRACT

Technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, products, process, procedure or techniques. This implies following two points
1. A technological forecast deals with certain characteristics such as levels of technical performances (eg. speed power, safety). Role of technological advances (introduction of paperless) office, picture phone new materials, costs, etc). The forecaster need not state how these characteristics will be achieved. His forecast may even predict characteristics which are beyond the present means of performing some of these functions .However ,it is not within his scope to suggest how these limitations will be overcome.

2. Technological forecasting also deals with useful machines, procedures, or techniques. Technology forecast and technology innovation chain:-
There are five stages of any technological innovations

1.Basic scientific findings /discovery of a principle:-
These establish minimum knowledge on basis of sound scientific principles from which a solution to specific problems could be found.
           
2. Laboratory or bench level feasibility:-
At these stages depending on the identified problems, a laboratory workable model could be found /fabricated without violating any natural physical laws this would generally be able to work in the desired way only in laboratory environment, under control conditions and supervision of trained scientists, technology, and technician.

3.Operating prototype /pilot plant:-
On reaching these stages it would be possible to obtain design/ engineering Parameters to construct a device/ system which would be capable of working in an operational environment using commercially available inputs.

4.Commercial introduction /operational use:-
This stage represents not only technical and design adequacy, but also economical feasibility. Generally, first production model is benchmark of completion of this stage.

5.Widespread adoption:-
At this stage having demonstrated the technical and /economic And / environmental superiority, the technology is now poised to supershed and replaces Prior devices, procedures, etc on a wide scale.

6.Diffusion to other areas:-
At this stage new technology not only replaces old one ,but it is also adopted to perform such function as were not being performed by earlier devices techniques .

7.Social and economic impact:-
At this stage, the innovations will affect the behaviour of the society and its use may reach point where its impact will be felt by society.