The Potential of Biogas as Vehicle Fuel in Europe

The Potential of Biogas as Vehicle Fuel in Europe

Abstract

Despite the many estimations of the biogas potential, there is a gap in research regarding current production volumes of biogas in Europe and the corresponding potential of bio-methane as a ve-hicle fuel. Therefore, this thesis’ primary aim is to determine how much biogas that is produced within Europe at present and estimate how the biogas production may develop until 2015. The secondary purpose of this thesis is to analyse and identify the most important factors which are likely to decide whether this potential will be realized as a vehicle fuel or not.

Two different forecasts have been developed and discussed in order to determine the biogas pro-duction in 2015. According to the forecasts presented in this thesis, the biogas production in Europe may increase, from the current production of 6 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalents) to 23 Mtoe by 2015. Although being the most progressive forecast, 23 Mtoe is in line with previous diffusion patterns of other renewable energy technologies and also in line with estimations made by the European Commission.

The future biogas production and usage will likely be highly influenced by policies. A number of driving forces have been identified for the production of biogas, such as climate change and fuel security. These issues have in turn resulted in new policies and targets for the use of renewable energy sources, which act as driving forces for the development of the production and use of bio-gas. However, a number of blocking factors for realizing its potential as a vehicle fuel have been revealed. One severe blocking factor is the weak formation of networks and advocacy coalitions. Combined with lacking infrastructure, it imposes great obstacles for the bio-methane to win ac-ceptance on a European level. Nevertheless, if an existing strong actor or network would enter the bio-methane sector, it could lead the way for institutional changes, new policy incentives and increased legitimacy for bio-methane as vehicle fuel on a European level.

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